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China has sent its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.